Hi Lowell. You're close, but no cigar. As I stated it is similar to the far-field aftershock program, but that is where it ends.

With the data I have access to I can forecast quakes up to two years in advance of the quake. How ever at present time it is useless for the most part. There are too many variables that make it impractical and inaccurate. It has been estimated that 90% of all quakes are triggered. 1/5th of 1% of the quakes in the remaining 10% are the wild card so to speak. They have the ability of making the forecast useless in that they can alter the triggers so as to change the conditions that would trigger the quake.

The best and most accurate forecast is a week to 10 days before the quake, but even in this the magnitude still remains the one factor that is very hard to determine. The magnitude of any quake is determined by the amount of stress at the location of the forecasted quake. In most if not all the cases that amount is unknown. The timing on some quakes can be changed by some geomagnetic storms in that they alone can trigger a quake earlier then forecasted. There are times they can change the conditions to the point that the quakes will occur late. In some cases they can trigger quakes that have not been forecasted and in some very remote cases they change the conditions to the point that the forecasted quake will not occur at all. Take Care…Don in creepy town