Re: Statistical Asessement of Non-mainstream Predictive Moda
Posted by Earth watcher on November 21, 1999 at 15:51:59:

Thanks Jason. A second voice of reason, along with L, to put the fantastical claims of predictions here into a statistical perspective.
I don't begrudge anyone who attempts such a daunting task as earthquake prediction. That's why I started checkin out this "prediction forum". Sadly what I found was a small group of people who seem to harbor only deep seated hostility and anger at the slightest challenge to their wildly inaccurate predictions.
Dennis hasn't posted since a USGS employee pointed out that his claims for hits were guaranteed stastical events given the earthquake size, location and window of opportunity he placed his predictions in. Even Canie in her own words has identified Diane's lack of hits as "more of an anti-quake sort of think - that a quake will only happen in her windows - not guarentee it will happen in that time frame". This doesn't explain Diane's consistent pattern of posting large earthquake predictions after the fact with no more than a flippant explaination that she miscalculated her figures and did have a hit after all.
It would be funny here if it weren't so sad. And like L I suspect that all of this will quickly disappear, another victim of elimination by the "God Squad" of EPF.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: The GOD Squad - Canie  20:58:39 - 11/21/1999  (901420)  (0)