Posted by Pat in Petaluma {randy[010AT16]iscweb[10DOT160]com} on October 16, 1999 at 14:18:43:
Hi All, I'll put in my two cents now. The quake certainly was not unexpected. I received a warning on 10/13 from someone in the area that has some equipment not unlike Dennis that something was not quite right and this person fully expected it. There's also another team of reserchers who also issued warnings to friends who said they thought so as well, and were quite accurate with their assessment of the quake. I think in California in general the citizenry has thought an earthquake of some size was about to be delivered and from those whom I had random conversations with they have often asked me if I thought an earthquake was due and for others they just said they felt it was coming and were making preparations. Clearly, earthquakes do not arrive by surprise these days, or probably in ancient history either. However, even with the minimal amount of data that can be recorded in advance we have to know in a very short time earthquakes and their timely arrivals will no longer be a mystery. Now is the time for refinement to let those who need to know the most, something unpleasant is coming to their neighborhood. I hope sincerely my team of scientists and non scientists will put the issue to the test shortly when we deliver our public earthquake prediction. I went over the parameters of what is an allowable "hit" inside the halls of science yesterday and know exactly what is required by those within. I don't plan on making any minimal errors that will give anyone the opportunity to say we missed it. On the positive side, thank goodness there was no loss of life in this earthquake. I know it will be studied to death by those who do that kind of work, as it should be I suppose, however, today we are sorely in need for foresight, rather than hindsight in the matters of time and money spent on the earthquake process. As part of the global community, we in California are equal partners in unified seismicity, we surely couldn't escape fate for very much longer. For those of you in the Southern, CA regions, though the big bangs may be over for today, I would imagine sleep may be difficult. I recall after Loma Prieta having a restless feeling and I could imagine others in that area will feel the same. I wish I had known about the natural sleep remedy Valarian about that time. I've got a goodly supply now, so when its our turn up here, I'll be taking mine for sure. Pat in Petaluma
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