EVALUATION OF DON'S WESTERN NEBRASKA FORECAST FOR AUGUST 15-10 2001

Well, Don it looked like you might have missed one entirely until
this afternoon. Your Nebraska forecast was always a long shot.
There hadn't been an event in the region you specified since Feb 20, 1993
of Ml>=2.3, and I might add STILL hasn't been.

BUT, this afternoon NEIS is reporting a Ml 2.8 in east-central Wyoming.
This is the largest earthquake in an area including this epicenter
and your predicted location (41-43N, 100-109W) since August 19, 2000,
more than a year ago.

Don's Prediction had stated:

Ashby, Nebraska Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on August 14, 2001 at 13:18:32:

Magnitude: 2.3-4.1
From: 08/15/2001PDT - To: 08/20/2001PDT
Location: Ashby, Nebraska
Lat: 42.1N - Long: 101.9W - Range: 80Km

Hi All. My tummy is kind of acting up today. At first I thought it might be
the raw onion and garlic sandwich I had for lunch, but then I remembered
I didn't have my usual Corona Beer so not sure if the old tummy is trying to
tell me something or not.

Anyway it says there is about to be an earthquake in Nebraska of all places.
Should be somewhere around 2.3Mn to 4.1Mn. Location is 42.1N/101.9W with a
radius of 80Km. This should be about 5 miles WSW of Ashby, Nebraska. Talk
about being out in the middle of nowhere.

The parameters of today's event are (NEIS)

22Aug2001 21:18:33.3 41.8N 108.6W 0 ML=2.7 M NEI EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING
15-20AUG2001 (+/-80 km) 42.1N 101.9W 2.3-4.1 WESTERN NEBRASKA (Ashby)
DON'S Prediction

(2 days off in time, 33 km off in latitude, 300 miles off in longitude)
(magnitude within given limits)

Today's event lies about 500 km (300 miles) due west of the predicted
epicenter, well outside the expected (80 km) radius. It also occurred
two days outside Don's window. The magnitude was within the predicted
range and earthquakes in this region at this magnitude are so rare
(the last more than 1 year ago), that the prediction cannot be
considered a total miss. Grade about B- to C+