Evaluation of Don's eartquake prediction for Hopland region, No.
California.

It looked like Don was going to miss this one, but only barely.
The most active area of Northern California during the past 5 days
has been the region around Hopland/Geysers. During the period
of this forecast, there was a Ml 2.8 in the forecast region almost
every day. But good things come to those who wait. Yesterday, one
day late, a Ml 3.4 occurred in the Hopland region, so your record
remains unblemished by this forecast.

Don's prediction was posted on Aug 14, 2001 (#8881 in archives) and stated:

Hopland, Calif. Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on August 14, 2001 at 21:15:48:

Magnitude: 3.0-4.0
From: 08/15/2001PDT - To: 08/20/2001PDT
Location: Hopland, Calif.
Lat: 39.0N - Long: 123.0W - Range: 40Km

Hi All. I have the right combination this time. I exchanged the Bud. for a
Corona Beer. Looking for a 3.0 to 4.0Ml on 08/17/2001 about 7 miles east
of Hopland, California. Before anyone says anything I'm not picking on Hopland.

Location is 39.0N/123.0W with a 40Km radius. Window opens on 08/15/2001 and
closes on 08/20/2001. Take Care...Don in creepy town

Following are the events which occurred near the magnitude range
Don had predicted in the time and area of the prediction:

ML 2.8 2001/08/18 03:45:15 38.8N 122.8W NNE of The Geysers, CA
ML 2.8 2001/08/20 12:22:48 38.8N 122.9W NW of The Geysers, CA
ML 2.8 2001/08/20 14:58:42 38.8N 122.8W N of The Geysers, CA

But the main event after these qualifying heats occurred on 21 August
as follows:

ML 3.4 2001/08/21 20:01:18 38.8N 122.8W ESE of The Geysers, CA
ML 2.8 2001/08/21 20:00:37 38.8N 122.8W ESE of The Geysers, CA

The last event larger than this occurred on Dec 8, 2000 (Ml 4.4).
The only other events of this size in the area during the past year
occurred on April 13, 2001 and August 12, 2001 (Ml 3.5, 3.3). The
event on August 12 was also predicted by Don to the day of it's
occurrence. About 2 such events occur per year, so it is interesting
that Don was not satisfied with the first occurrence but insisted
that a second event would quickly follow (and did)

COMPARISON

Don's forecast had expected an event of Ml 3.0-4.0 between 17 and 20
August PDT within 40 km of 39N 123W. The largest event in Northern
and Central California since the August 12, 2001 Geysers event (Ml 3.5)
occurred in the Geysers on August 21, 2001, 20 hours outside the
stated window. This earthquake is 29 km from the predicted epicenter
and within the magnitude range. Since it is a rare event, Don gets
another A- on this prediction. I hope this means Petra is going
to give you a double serving of her famous fried chicken now!!!

P.S. Go back to Bud beer, must have been the Corona which threw you off.
Still waiting on that Nebraska earthquake??

• California/Nevada Earthquake listing