I should add that the following two earthquakes occurred in
Northern Italy during the period of Prof. Romino's forecast:

17Jul2001 15:06:15.6 46.7N 11.4E 10 MB=4.9 M NEI NORTHERN ITALY
and
18Jul2001 22:47:08.5 44.8N 8.3E 10 MB=4.5 M NEI NORTHERN ITALY

The first event was damaging and caused several casualties. PDE
says the following:
"At least two persons killed, one missing from rockslides, three people
injured and minor damage in the Merano area. One person died from a heart
attack at Balzano. Felt in much of northern Italy and as far south as
Venice. Felt in Karnten, Salzburg, Steiermark, Tirol, Vienna and
Vorarlberg, Austria. Felt at Kranj, Ljubljana and Tolmin, Slovenia."

In both cases they lie slightly outside of the predicted area,
but within the magnitude and time frames. The last event in the
forecast range of parameters occurred on August 15, 1985 (Ml 4.7)
16 years ago. Thus the probability of success in all aspects of
this prediction was about 1 in 500 over a 11-day period.
If we provide some leeway to his prediction (as in bullseye scoring),
and look at the probability of success in an area including the two
events on 17 and 18 July (47-44.5N; 8-12E), the odds of a "successful"
prediction are more in his favor. Over the past 10 years, there have
been 16 events which meet his criteria in this larger region. A
daily probability of 0.0044 events per day. In his 11 day window
the chances of success would be about one in 20 (p=0.05).
Whatever method Prof. Romino is using seems to have beaten
the odds in this case. Rating: around A-