Roger,
The probabilities look about right. I would like to give the forecast time to complete
before looking at the results - that will be several more days.
One question, however, is whether this technique is really applicable to this
forecast. Remember, the forecasters are saying there will be an increased seismicity
in these band. When there is a 99% chance of a quake in a 10-day period, there
is no way of using this to determine whether an increase in seismicity occurred since
10 events in the area is treated the same as 1 event in the area in the 10-day interval.
For example, the swarm of earthquakes south of Honshu occurred in the 144-146
degree band. There were 20 earthquakes in that swarm, clearly the area was
more active during the swarm than it had been for months. But your technique would
not show this as the area is 99% likely to have an earthquake during the 10-day
period, it says nothing about how active the area is.
In my opinion, in this case we need to look at total seismicity, as the forecast
is for increases in seismicity not for a single event in the region. I think this is one
case where the Jones algorithm is not applicable.