Posted by Lowell on July 09, 2001 at 22:15:23:
Well, time has now passed and we can see whose test prediction for southern California was the winner - all in fun, of course. The predictions were: KATE: Ml 3.2-4.8 within 35 km of 34.4N 117.72W between 6/28/01 (5:45PM)PST and 7/05/01 (5:45PM)PST LOWELL (FIRST PREDICTION) I think the earthquake will occur about 80 km SW of your stated epicenter several days after your prediction expires. MARK: Ml 3.2-4.8 within 80 km of 34.4N 117.72W July 4, 5 or 6 LOWELL (SECOND PREDICTION) Ml 2.5-4.0 within 35 km (later revised in jest to 200 km) of 33.9N 118.6 on July 7. Twelve well-located mainshocks of Ml>=2.5 occurred in southern California during the period covered by these predictions (from SCSN catalogs) The listing of these events follows: 6 30 2 50 59 2001 34.88N 116.41W 0 2.6 1 6 30 14 21 20 2001 34.29N 116.77W 4 2.6 2 6 30 22 30 54 2001 35.80N 118.05W 8 2.7 3 7 1 16 57 8 2001 32.78N 116.16W 4 2.7 4 7 2 8 44 19 2001 34.00N 117.43W 8 2.5 5 7 2 15 25 26 2001 33.25N 117.48W 12 2.8 6 7 3 2 0 20 2001 35.93N 117.68W 3 2.5 7 7 3 11 40 48 2001 34.26N 116.76W 3 3.9 8 7 3 11 43 13 2001 34.26N 116.76W 3 3.0 9 7 04 22:27:53 2001 33.20N 115.60W 3 2.5 10 7 05 23:31:18 2001 34.28N 116.48W 2 2.6 11 7 07 02:28:36 2001 33.53N 117.92W 16 2.8 12 How to evaluate these predictions depends on what you consider most important in a prediction. If the event is required to be within the magnitude range stated, than for Mark's and Kate's predictions only one event would qualify - the Big Bear event of Ml 3.9 on July 3 (# 8). All would qualify under Lowell's criteria. If location is considered the most important criteria, then distance to the predicted epicenter is the most important. None of these events fall within 35 km of Kate's or Lowell's predicted epicenter and only one occurs within Mark's 80 km radius. 10 of the 12 occur within 200 km of Lowell's predicted epicenter. On the other hand, if timing is considered the prime target, 11 of the 12 occur within Kates 7-day window, 2 occur within Mark's 3-day window and 1 occurs on the day Lowell expected. Comparing predictions is obviously a no-win situation. so let's try making all three parameters equally important and producing some kind of point system. Starting with any event in the expected window with a magnitude in the expected window would seem a good starting place. In this case, Kate would have one event - # 8, there are no events of Ml>3.2 on July 4, 5 or 6 so Mark's prediction is out based on this arbitrary criteria. The Big Bear quake was 90 km from Kate's predicted epicenter, but in the correct time range and magnitude range. But the Newport Beach earthquake of July 7 fell within Lowell's time range and magnitude range as well and occurred only 75 km from the predicted epicenter. It would seem that the most accurate prediction was the first made by Lowell in which it was stated that the event would occur about 80 km southwest of Kate's epicenter several days after the end of her time window (i.e. 7 or 8 July). The Newport Beach earthquake occurred 90 km southwest of Kate's epicenter on July 7. I leave it to the reader, however, to decide for him/herself which of these predictions best matched the available facts. This is a hairy problem not for the squeamish. I would love to see how other's deal with this comparative problem - any takers?
Follow Ups:
● Hairy Monster - michael 10:30:09 - 7/10/2001 (8430) (1)
● Re: Hairy Monster - Lowell 10:45:19 - 7/10/2001 (8431) (0)
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