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Can't imagine such a large aftershock?
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Posted by Lowell on July 07, 2001 at 12:12:50:
Petra, You say in your post that it is hard to imagine such a large aftershock, but right here on this board, in the far-field aftershock forecast which was posted on June 23, 2001, it was stated: "Since it has been more than 50 years since the last event of this size in the region and the area has a history of large aftershocks, a second event of Mw>=7 is HIGHLY LIKELY within the next 10 days within 200 km of this epicenter. The area should be on high seismic alert throughout this time." (emphasis added is mine). Apparently, not only did the author of this far-field aftershock forecast imagine such an aftershock, but published this information two weeks ago on this board. This should be a clue to those who do not believe it is possible to predict large events, that under certain circumstances, it is indeed possible. I am sorry for the people of Peru who have had to endure these earthquakes, but this warning was available through the internet for the past two weeks, and local authorities should have been prepared for a second great shock in the area.
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