Roger
we are talking about period 19th January 2011 to 25th August 2012.as per your blog (only ) there were 65 predictions and 25 hits
Total number of quakes during the period are
1)6.0 to 6.6---------232 ( for + or - 0.3 )
2)6.1 to 6.7--------183
3)6.2 to 6.8--------130
4)6.3 to 6.9--------104
5)6.4 to 7.0--------78
6)6.5 to 7.1--------62 etc
since i predict 6.+ quakes up to 7+, if I take figure 6.3 to 6.9 ie 104 quakes in period (ie 200 windows)
on 11th March 2011 there were 20+ quakes of 6 and above . so effective quakes would be 80.
odds are 80/200 ie 0.4
Thus 65 *0.4 ie 26
actual quakes are 25
Thus it is not as bad as pointed out
Amit