IMPRESSIVE FORECASTING SUCCESS

The forecasting chart below is a slightly modified version of the one that I posted to my forecasting Web site on August 30, 2012, the day before that powerful Philippines earthquake. There is a longitude marker line added. And there is a new forecasting chart update at my Web site.

2012/08/31 12:47:34 10.82N 126.62E 35 7.6 Philippine Islands Region

You can see from the line peak shapes and that vertical longitude line that my forecasting program did actually do a fairly good job of indicating that some powerful seismic activity could be headed for the area around 127 E. I myself would have guessed from the line peaks that the activity might be more around 123 E.

The following chart is an expanded version of my latest forecasting chart. On it the line peak structure for the Philippines earthquake and my August 29 signal can be seen. The earthquake does not have a peak at 127 E meaning that my computer programs determined that the earthquake itself was not a good match for others that have occurred around 127 E. So, in spite of the fact that the earthquake itself was not very cooperative, the August 30 forecasting chart and that August 29 signal still displayed line peaks around 127 E.

My program does produce some valuable data. Had forecasters around the world been watching for seismic activity at that longitude then perhaps they might have spotted the approach of the earthquake.

A RAY OF FORECASTING HOPE?

USGS personnel are now reportedly using Twitter summaries to tell when powerful earthquakes are occurring around the world. The Twitter notes apparently start appearing within seconds of an earthquake. The normal sensors USGS personnel are using reportedly take a minimum of several minutes to tell that an earthquake has occurred.

It is probably much too much to ask for. But, perhaps as a next step, USGS personnel might discover that if they asked people around the world to post notes to Twitter regarding the times when they heard Ear Tones, then that information might be used to tell when and where powerful earthquakes were going to occur.

I first formally proposed that governments should be doing something like that roughly fifteen years ago. This is an indirect address for the latest version of one of my Web pages that was stored at a former Web site in 1996.

http://www.freewebs.com/eq-forecasting/Demo-Program.html

So, it took them a decade and a half to learn how to monitor Twitter accounts for earthquake reports. I wonder how long it will take them to come up with the fantastic idea that they could be monitoring reports about Ear Tones and other precursors. Would another decade and a half, say around 2027, be totally out of the question?

Stay Tuned !!!

These are personal opinions.

• Demo Program