Earthquake Research Breakthrough – Attn: Canie and Pavel – August 29, 2012

Hi Canie,

I have been hoping for quite a while that your bulletin board would someday actually be used by researchers who wanted to compare notes regarding earthquake science, not just argue with one another. And I have found that the notes that Pavel has been posting lately have been quite helpful to my own research.

With this present post I have to say that it is somewhat amusing to me that I am actually having to try to convince other earthquake researchers such as Pavel that their efforts likely represent important breakthroughs in this area of science!

This is an indirect link for a new Web page that displays some data sent to me by Dr. Pavel Kalenda. They are stored there with his permission.

http://www.freewebs.com/eq-forecasting/Research-PK.html

With notes posted to public forums such as this bulletin board I generally prefer to use indirect links like that one rather than direct links in part to try to keep every Internet robot on the planet from getting my direct Web site addresses and storing them on spam lists.

In my opinion Pavel’s ground tilt data probably represent a type of important breakthrough for earthquake researchers. The reason is the following:

Scientists around the world use various standards such as lengths like the meter, and weights or masses like the kilogram, in order to compare their data with data from other researchers. That is an obvious and well known fact, not just my opinion. And with Pavel’s ground tilt data they could now have a type of standard measurement that they can use to calibrate their earthquake research data.

Researchers need to be able to compare their earthquake research and forecasting data with information regarding what is taking place within the ground in tectonic plates around the world. GPS sensor data can be used for that. But those sensors can be affected by phenomena such as surface heat linked with the position of the sun in the sky, and rainstorms. They are probably also affected to some degree by nearby truck traffic and building construction efforts. And, I believe that for good measurements there have to be a lot of sensors located in some area such as the area around a city.

Because Pavel’s ground tilt sensor data are collected in abandoned coal mines etc. they are not so strongly affected by truck traffic etc. and are more likely to indicate what is actually taking place in the rock masses of entire continents. As a consequence, researchers around the world could be using them to “calibrate” their own data such as satellite, GPS, and EM Signal data.

For an example of that people can look at my 2012/08/14 – Japan area chart on that new Web page. There are quite a few variables in my earthquake forecasting computer program that can be optimized so that the program can generate the most accurate and significant data. But before Pavel’s data were available I could only compare my data with earthquake data. I could not tell what was actually taking place in the ground with regard to tectonic plate movement. And I had to just guess what might or might not be causing line peaks to appear here and there on my charts.

By comparing my data with Pavel’s data I can now see why some of those line peaks have been appearing and disappearing. They are good matches with chart peaks associated with his ground tilt sensors. So, I could now optimize the different variables used by my forecasting program so that my line peak data would be the best match for his ground tilt data. And other researchers could be doing the same thing.

At some point I hope that Pavel will start making his ground tilt data available at some Internet Web site. I myself have only a few of his charts from various locations where his sensors are located. And, I probably won’t actually attempt to do any of those optimizations until more of his data become available.

These are personal opinions.

• Research Web Page