The linked SCEC article says that the San Andreas in Carrizo plain has had quakes every 88 years for the last few hundred years rather than the 300 years they used to think.

I recall that back in the late 80s or early 90s the 30 year probability of a major quake on that section was rated really low: less than 10%?? Well, so far it did not happen, but I'm sure that the probality would now be rated far higher.

Chris

• San Andreas recurrence