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Suggestion for a first baby step
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Posted by John Vidale on January 10, 2012 at 10:18:41:
present the first iota of evidence that any of your prediction ideas work. I'd think you'd know after all these decades, but evidence would consist of predictions - time, area, and magnitude range - outperforming a simple ETAS model in a statistically significant way. You haven't even shown a method that outperforms rolling dice. I.e., first HAVE the idea, THEN complain to the government that they're ignoring the idea.
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