Interesting. It seems that I have heard the 1 in 4 statistic for many many years. One of these things that just gets passed around? Most people in geology do realize that an "average" is just a statistic that the planet generally ignores! This morning we have a cloud that looks very much like it is steam from the volcano. It isn't...but what the hey! After the Redding article, people are asking me what I think, and the general answer is "I don't know when the mountain is going to erupt again." Geologists know nothing (LOL)