I woke up early and watched a little CNN, and they gave odds of winning lottery, odds of being hot by lightning, and odds of being hit by chunk of this satellite. They gave odds of being hit by satellite chunk at 1:3200.
This is wrong by a factor of 7 billion. They compounded it by giving odds of being hit by lightning at 1 in 10,000, and said it would be more likely to be hit by satellite than lightning. NBC got the same comparison correct the other night. The odds an individual being hit by a satellite frament is one in trillions. The odds of some random person being hit (one of the 7 billion) is one in 3200. NBC said odds of being killed by lightning in USA was something like 1 in a million, which I believe is about correct (probably higher if you live in Florida.

The CNN link below has it correct: the scientist says 100,000 times more likely to be hit by lightning than hot by satellite (or something like that).

Chris

• odds of being hit