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Re: Updates on outstanding predictions to this board
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Posted by Lowell on June 10, 2001 at 21:07:11:
No, I am saying that it is likely that when NEIS recomputes this event it will fall within the parameters of Don's prediction. PNSN uses a local velocity model and magnitude determinator for events off the coast. They could not detect a Ml 2.5 that far away. From past events given this magnitude in approximately the same region off the Coast of Oregon, PNSN consistently underdetermines the magnitude by about 1.5 units and pulls the epicenter towards land by about 1.5 degrees of longitude as compared with later NEIS determinations of the same event. If this is the case with this event, it will fall very near (within the limits given by Don in his prediction) to the event predicted. Incidentally, the word "outstanding" is used here to indicate "predictions which have not yet been evaluated" and is not intended to indicate the correctness of any prediction. In this case, however, if the NEIS location and magnitude correct the PNSN parameters as expected, then Don did predict within his given parameters the event parameters. The notation that this was the only event in the area in two weeks was intended to give the reader an idea of the current seismicity of the region.
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