Re: Updates on outstanding predictions to this board
Posted by Lowell on June 10, 2001 at 21:07:11:

No, I am saying that it is likely that when NEIS recomputes this event it will
fall within the parameters of Don's prediction. PNSN uses a local velocity model
and magnitude determinator for events off the coast. They could not detect a
Ml 2.5 that far away. From past events given this magnitude in approximately
the same region off the Coast of Oregon, PNSN consistently underdetermines
the magnitude by about 1.5 units and pulls the epicenter towards land by about
1.5 degrees of longitude as compared with later NEIS determinations of the same
event. If this is the case with this event, it will fall very near (within the limits
given by Don in his prediction) to the event predicted.
Incidentally, the word "outstanding" is used here to indicate "predictions which
have not yet been evaluated" and is not intended to indicate the correctness of
any prediction. In this case, however, if the NEIS location and magnitude correct
the PNSN parameters as expected, then Don did predict within his given parameters
the event parameters. The notation that this was the only event in the area in two
weeks was intended to give the reader an idea of the current seismicity of the
region.