Forecasting Program Update + Return To The Dark Ages
Posted by EQF on August 3, 2011

The following is a URL link for a conference report that some might find interesting. I have not yet looked at the entire video.

http://www.larouchepac.com/node/18714

FORECASTING PROGRAM UPDATE

My earthquake forecasting program that generates the forecasting charts on my Data.html Web page appears to be working fairly well.

http://www.freewebs.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html

In my opinion there is a moderately good correlation between the line peaks on the charts and the longitudes of 6 and higher magnitude earthquakes that are occurring around the world.

The accuracy of that correlation is likely strongly affected by the level of sophistication of my computer program probability equations. There is quite a bit of room for improvement with those equations. No changes have been made in them in years.

My forecasting program is intended in part to be a program that researchers around the world can use and improve for free. However, efforts to make the program downloads easier etc. are on hold for the moment because there are higher priority projects on my schedule such as the following one.

RETURN TO THE DARK AGES

The term “Dark Ages” often refers to a time in human history (perhaps 500 AD to 1200 AD) when science might have been strongly controlled and subverted by politics. And those politics were often largely controlled by the religious beliefs or attitudes of the people in control of government policies at that time.

As a consequence, the advance of science appears to me to have been sharply held back during the Dark Ages. It might have been dangerous or even fatal for science researchers to try to explain or even determine how our universe works if their efforts resulted in the development of theories etc. that were viewed as being contrary to popular religious beliefs.

Two examples where science has been held back at various times in our history would be the observation that the Earth is not the center of the universe, and the theory of evolution.

For all of human history there has been that strong tendency to allow politics to control and dramatically slow the advance of science. And that tendency constantly rears its ugly head with more or less success at different times.

One of the expressions of that tendency in modern times in the U.S. is the belief by many that the U.S. should be fashioned into a utopia for the wealthy and powerful. And the wealthy and powerful should be allowed to do whatever they wish regardless of the consequences for other people in the U.S. and around the world. That tendency is frequently expressed in two of their unofficial statements or policies:

1. “The Almighty created the poor of our world. And they are His and only His responsibility. Wealthy and powerful people have no responsibility for the poor in the U.S. and around the world. Additionally, the wealthy and powerful have every right to abuse and take advantage of the poor and the less powerful.”

2. “There is some type of ‘Divine Force’ or whatever out there that will protect our world and especially the poor regardless of how the wealthy and powerful behave. So, the wealthy and powerful can do whatever they wish without having to worry about possible negative consequences for our world.”

In the U.S., Republicans, Democrats, and Third Party elected officials constantly fall into those two traps though in my opinion the Republicans and some Third Party officials have a greater tendency to do that. The Democratic officials often seem to have no sense of direction at all.

For several examples,

During the second Bush administration, White House officials and the Congress incorrectly assumed that some type of Divine Force or whatever would protect the city of New Orleans from hurricane Katrina. And we had the partial destruction of New Orleans by the hurricane.

During the present Obama administration, White House officials and the Congress incorrectly assumed that drilling for oil in deep ocean water was protected by some type of Divine Force or whatever. And we had that environmental disaster in the Gulf of Mexico.

An opposing theory that I myself partially agree with proposes that with both of those disasters and many others, White House officials and members of the Congress simply didn’t care what might happen.

As someone who provides free advice to governments around the world regarding matters affecting human life and health I can also add as an expert on this that part of the above problem results from government officials knowing relatively little about science and how our universe works, from government officials’ lack of interest in learning how to communicate effectively with people in the scientific community who could be helping them, and with the lack of interest by many people in the scientific community with regard to providing government officials with information that they need so that they can formulate effective science policies.

In the past the U.S. has been able to partially deal with that inefficiency by endlessly borrowing money to pay for science research etc. But with recent developments that borrowing capacity is going to be diminished. And some of the first programs to be cut will be vitally important science projects. I believe that some of them have already been eliminated.

It is my expectation that as a consequence of so many important science projects losing their funding, the U.S. and much of the rest of the world will begin slipping into a new period of Dark Ages and a permanent moderate recession.

This is such a major potential problem that I have at least temporarily reduced the amount of time that I am spending on earthquake forecasting research. And I am working on some reports to send to U.S. government officials warning them about this Dark Ages problem and providing them with some advice on how to avoid it and also get us out of our global recession. Several reports regarding such matters were sent to government officials earlier this year.

There are two things that need to be done to avoid or get out of, and then stay out of a major economic recession.

1. Governments need to have realistic economic policies.

2. We need to develop better sources of environmentally safe, affordable energy.

The need for adequate supplies of energy is vitally important to every technologically advanced nation. When energy supplies are limited or energy costs too much it can be like trying to live without enough food or water.

That first problem regarding developing realistic economic policies would not be too difficult for at least some governments such as the U.S. However, the international energy cartel, especially the oil companies, are in my opinion very effectively blocking efforts to develop major new energy sources. And I don’t know if that problem can be solved, especially here in the U.S.

It might be possible for energy program development progress to be made in some other countries such as Germany, India, and the People’s Republic of China where oil companies might not be able to so easily control virtually all federal government officials and federal government policies.

These are personal opinions.