Posted by Lowell on May 31, 2001 at 14:19:05:
On May 18, Don posted the following earthquake prediction: Posted by Don in Hollister on May 18, 2001 at 14:13:07: Magnitude: 1.5M/3.5M From: 05/28/2001 - To: 06/02/2001 Location: Challis, Idaho Area Lat: 44.5N - Long: 113.4W - Range: 40K According to the MBMG web page, the following earthquake occurred today: May 31, 20001 08:54:22 44.5N 112.9W ML=2.1 C 30 km SW of Lima This epicenter is 39 km from Don's predicted event, and occurs within the stated location, time and magnitude parameters. This prediction is correct in all regards. You're on a roll Don, keep up the good work. There have been 7 days on which earthquake of Ml>=2 have occurred within 40 km of the predicted epicenter during the past 3 years. This translates to a 0.006 daily probability of such an earthquake. Don's prediction covers a period of 5 days, so the probability of an event in this period is about 0.03 (odds of about 1 in 33). This is a statistically significant prediction. No earthquakes in this region in the past 3 years have exceeded Ml 2.5. Five have been marginally larger than today's earthquake. For data on Montana/Idaho earthquakes see: http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/quake/mbmgsun.mtech.edu/name=quake/border=1
Follow Ups:
● Re: Challis, ID comes through for Don - Petra Challus 21:22:33 - 5/31/2001 (7824) (0)
● U. Utah event determination - Lowell 14:26:01 - 5/31/2001 (7822) (0)
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