Sorry EQF, a lot of what you say on this thread is just clueless. You are clearly a lost cause though. You can keep posting away; your posts do not attack anyone. But posts like on this thread really do bring the quality of Earthwaves down. John and I (and Roger) make the comments we do because some of what you say is at least mildly offensive to people like us who work in the field.

Start with getting the terminology correct. What you are talking about is "short-term prediction". A lost of serious seismologists/earthquake geologists do long term forecasts of the type: 30% chance of a quake greater than Mx on segment Y of fault Z.

Or, there is a 20% chance of an acceleration >0.2g for hard rock site M in the next 30 years.

These are forecasts. They mean something now although some of these have been somewhat clueless in the past (I think there was something like a 2% chance for 30 years for the Carrizo part of the San Andreas on a forecast put out maybe 20 years ago....that is too low...maybe I am mistaken but that is my recollection.)
Chris