Hi Amit Dave,

Two subjects are being discussed in this note. Comments and recommendations are welcome.

1. Forecast Data And The Etdprog.exe Computer Program

One of the next significant additions to the Etdprog.exe earthquake forecasting computer program will probably be some code that will make it possible for anyone to display his or her specialized data such as earthquake forecasting data on the charts. So, that addition would enable you to generate those yellow lines (or any color lines) on the chart yourself.

The code will probably work like this:

There will be a special text file with the program. And people will enter their forecast data etc. into that file. Data lines will likely have a format like:

2010/01/07 01:34:25 35 –105 7.0 30

2010/01/07 would be the center of the date window for the expected earthquake.

01:34:25 would be its expected time.

+35 would be the expected latitude (+ = North, - = South)

–105 would be the expected longitude (+ = East, - = West)

7.0 would be the expected magnitude.

30 would be a probability type number showing how confident the forecaster was that the earthquake would actually occur. For example, 80 would be high confidence. 20 would be low confidence.

The only absolutely necessary number would be the date. All other numbers could be left off or represented by double quotation marks or two commas perhaps. So, since you do not have any latitude or longitude information, your data lines might look like this:

2010/01/07 01:34:25 "" "" 7.0 30

As no longitude inforamtion is present, the program would simply draw a line on the chart at the appropriate date and time as shown in my demonstration chart. The expected magnitude might be represented by the thickness of the line. The confidence level might be represented by the color of the line. Red = high, Green = low.

2. Your Forecast Data

Looking at the yellow lines on the chart I posted here I have to wonder if forecasters around the world would be able to use your data to tell when earthquakes are about to occur. It appears that some highly significant earthquakes occurred during 2010 and there were no yellow lines near them. And there were quite a few yellow lines on the chart with no significant earthquakes near them.

However, as I also said earlier, I feel that it is up to each forecaster to demonstrate that his or her data should be used by other forecasters and governments etc. around the world. So, I can do the computer programming needed to display those data. And it is up to you and Shan and other researchers to prove that your forecast programs actually work.

I believe that my Year Charts provide that type of information regarding my own forecasting program. My line peak groups were good indicators of some approaching significant earthquakes, especially the ones in Haiti and Chile in early 2010. And data from yet another forecaster who has not yet given me permission to display them on a chart on the EarthWaves board (and who probably won't) appear to me to be excellent matches for my own data. They are from a completely different type of forecasting method being run in a country on the opposite side of the planet from where I live.