Forecast Methodology and Other Topics August 10, 2010
Posted by EQF on August 10, 2010 at 09:06:07:

Hi Amit Dave,

CIRCULATING FORECAST INFORMATION

As I have said in the past, from what I can tell regarding your forecasting method, at best, what you appear to me to be doing is simply identifying time windows during which powerful earthquakes are more likely to occur based on statistical data.

However, if you are also including planet position data in your calculations as I understand you are, then I expect that they are likely actually reducing the accuracy of your time window calculations.

The following is your forecast for a powerful earthquake to occur on July 26, 2010. But no powerful earthquake occurred anywhere on the planet around that time as far as I am aware.


http://www.Freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Archives.html



http://www.Freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Year_Charts.html

FORECAST TIME WINDOWS

Also as I have said in the past, if you can explain in detail in one of your postings here exactly how you are generating your forecast data then that would be helpful information.

I myself am working on a project that involves adding a high probability earthquake occurrence time windows capability to my earthquake forecasting computer program. It will probably be fairly similar to some of the calculations you yourself are doing assuming I understand your methodology. But it would be helpful to have more direct information from you on how you are doing the calculations. How do you decide how important the planetary data are etc.? If you regard all of that information as being confidential then I understand. I myself don't share some of my methodology information with anyone and everyone.

I made one attempt to contact earthquake researcher Jim Berkland regarding those high probability time windows. He has been doing that type of work for quite a few years. But the first try to reach him was not successful. So I plan to keep trying to reach him.

MY OWN FORECASTING EFFORTS

Things are really starting to accelerate. I have a new Web site that should provide all of the Internet features that I need for my work. I just recently got a computer program running that dramatically expands the capabilities of that Web site. And I now have an impressive team of professional and amateur computer programmers and Web site developers who want to work on these projects. This includes a Perl language, Internet Bulletin Board, and Web site development expert who should be extremely helpful.

All that I need now is time to get all of these things moving along. There is a special forecasting project that will probably keep me busy for this week. But then I should have a lot more time free to work with other people on these efforts.

These are personal opinions.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Forecast Methodology and Other Topics August 10, 2010 - Amit Dave  00:51:03 - 8/13/2010  (77456)  (0)
     ● Re: Forecast Methodology and Other Topics August 10, 2010 - Amit Dave  10:08:10 - 8/10/2010  (77448)  (0)
     ● Additional Text - EQF  09:15:01 - 8/10/2010  (77447)  (0)
     ● URL Address Correction - EQF  09:11:34 - 8/10/2010  (77446)  (0)