|
Re: Earthquake Forecasting Success!!! June 15, 2010 |
I don't want to rain on anybody's parade here...but the 5.7 aftershock was entirely predictable simply because it followed the larger quake by a few weeks and was in the zone. I would guess that we'll see something more very soon on the Coyote Creek or San Jacinto Faults, simply because the stress seems to have transferred there. I see many "spikes" on EQF's pages all of the time. I don't claim to understand his methods, but it seems that most of these spikes do not produce anything of significance. However, as always, I encourage people to keep trying. If somebody comes up with a good method that can predict size, place and reasonable time window for a quake on a recurring and comprehensible basis that beats simple chance, I say go for it. The planet will do what it wants...and right now we are often simply observers. Ahem...I DID predict the April quake a few hours before it happened. But that was merely a hunch based upon a few 4 plus quakes that had popped up in a previously fairly quiet place. I would not be surprised at all if a four or larger quake occurred near the northern end of that aftershock zone, especially on or near the Coyote Creek Fault. In fact, I predict on of four or larger within the next month within a fifty mile radius. There...stuck my neck out on a hunch! Follow Ups: ● Re: Earthquake Forecasting Success!!! June 15, 2010 - Glen 00:03:26 - 6/24/2010 (77281) (0) ● How The Forecast Data Charts Work June 20, 2010 - EQF 05:49:28 - 6/20/2010 (77273) (1) ● Better links for those charts - EQF 05:57:32 - 6/20/2010 (77274) (1) ● Another try with the links - EQF 06:03:49 - 6/20/2010 (77275) (0) ● Re: Earthquake Forecasting Success!!! June 15, 2010 - heartland chris 17:29:30 - 6/18/2010 (77264) (1) ● Re: Earthquake Forecasting Success!!! June 15, 2010 - PennyB 22:51:34 - 6/18/2010 (77266) (1) ● triggered slip far southern California - heartland chris 09:09:21 - 6/19/2010 (77267) (1) ● Re: triggered slip far southern California - heartland chris 09:11:26 - 6/19/2010 (77268) (2) ● Re: triggered slip far southern California - Skywise 11:29:26 - 6/19/2010 (77270) (0) ● Re: triggered slip far southern California - PennyB 10:05:02 - 6/19/2010 (77269) (1) ● old - heartland chris 15:45:48 - 6/19/2010 (77271) (0) |
|