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usual statistics
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Posted by John Vidale on April 12, 2010 at 13:59:54:
My impression of standard models is that, if one looks 3 or so magnitude units lower than the mainshock, roughly half of all earthquakes have foreshocks. Roughly 10-20% per magnitude integer. So before 7s, if the network is sensitive down to magnitude 1, 6 integers lower, it would not be surprising if 75% of the events had one or more foreshock. Certainly accelerated deformation should increase the rates of earthquakes in the region, and this earthquake may well has generated some afterslip to the north of the rupture zone. I see no evidence so far, however, that the signals are diagnostic of any great increase in the risk to the point of warranting mitigating actions.
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