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| Re: short term prediction |
The following are personal opinions. My data indicate to me that most of our significant, powerful earthquakes could probably be forecast fairly easily if a wide variety of precursors were monitored. The government of the People’s Republic of China appears to me to be trying to move in that direction. And certain independent researchers here in the U.S. are considering doing that as well. I myself have saying that people should be doing since around 1995. http://home.netcom.com/~edgrsprj/124.html One of the main problems at the moment is, as I said, that governments and the international scientific community have so far been unwilling and unable to deal with the politics associated with forecasting earthquakes. There is a tremendous and understandable fear of ordering the evacuation of an entire city for example, only to have the expected earthquake never occur. Many people are more worried about something like that happening than they are about the actual earthquakes.Governments need to learn how to deal with that subject if they want to be able to effectively predict earthquakes. But, they are not making a serious effort to do that. And that is dramatically slowing the entire science. Researchers don’t know in what direction they should be heading. Regarding accurate warnings, you can see this one that was posted here the day before the Haiti earthquake. There was a significant earthquake. My timing was correct. http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/76367.html People can make a judgment regarding the accuracy of the forecast data that I am making available by looking at the charts for past earthquakes on my Archives Web page. Some data for more recent earthquakes that I am planning to add to the Web page are quite impressive in my opinion. But I still have to say upon studying all of those data myself that I am glad that I myself don’t live near any fault zones.http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Archives.html However, this is getting away from the original topic that had to do with foreshocks as precursors. I still believe that the foreshock data could probably be combined with strain accumulation data to help us generate at least some helpful earthquake warnings.Follow Ups: ● as usual - John Vidale 13:52:03 - 4/12/2010 (76892) (0) |
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