2010/01/12 21:53:10 18.45N 72.44W 10 7.0 Haiti Region
NEIS Data

News reports are stating that the fatality count could be as high as 30,000 to 50,000 people. Hospitals, government offices, and other disaster response facilities have been damaged or totally destroyed. The U.N. headquarters building was demolished with the loss of perhaps as many as 150 aid workers who were inside at the time. Food, water, medicine, housing, and other essentials of life are in short supply or are nonexistent in some areas.

This report discusses data generated by the Etdprog.exe earthquake forecasting computer program related to that earthquake.

The following is a link to a formal Earthquake Advisory posted to this bulletin board on January 11, 2010.

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/76367.html

http://www.Freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/images/20100111C.png

As can be seen, there was some strong longitude peak activity just to the west of the 73 W longitude line on the 15 day Time Window. I presently believe that that peak activity was probably signaling the approach of the Haiti earthquake.

The reasons that peak activity like that might be offset from the actual longitude of the earthquake is presently unknown. It might have to do with earthquake related strain causing fault zones to the east or west of where the earthquake will occur to generate EM Signals. As the chart below shows, some peak activity observed around the time of the 6.5 magnitude moderately destructive January 10, 2010 California earthquake was just to the east of where the earthquake occurred.

http://www.Freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/images/20100110C.png

That longitude offset might also have something to do with the way that the Etdprog.exe computer program’s probability calculations work.

The following chart shows Chart A forecast data plus data lines for several of the Haiti earthquakes and aftershocks and EM Signals detected before and after the earthquake.

http://www.Freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/images/20100114C1.png

em 1 would be the lowest strength EM Signal that I work with. Em 9 would be the highest strength on a rough and somewhat arbitrary linear scale.

Those data indicate to me that the EM Signals detected on January 11 and 12 (lines 5 and 6) were likely pointing to the approach of the earthquake. The em 3 signal was detected about 11 hours before the main shock. Its strong, sharp peak at 73 W longitude was an excellent indicator regarding where the earthquake could be about to occur.

At this time data for individual EM Signals like that are not available at the Data.html Web page. That is because the Etdprog.exe computer program has to be used to process the data. Instead, averaged Time Windows are stored there. They are much easier to interpret.

The following chart shows these time line types of data for the main Haiti earthquake, numerous aftershocks, and some EM Signal data.

http://www.Freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/images/20100114C2.png

Longitude peaks on the earthquake lines etc. indicate that that particular earthquake had triggering characteristics that were similar to earthquakes that occurred in the past at that longitude. My earthquake database file containing records for more than 50,000 earthquakes goes from the present back to the beginning of 1990.

My data indicate to me that when a powerful earthquake occurs such as the January 12 earthquake in Haiti, it is often triggered by forces related to the gravitational pulls of the sun and the moon. Most of the aftershocks occurring in the days following the earthquake will then be somewhat random events as can be seen in that chart. And after perhaps a week or two, powerful aftershocks will again often be triggered by those gravity related forces. That can probably be seen to a certain extent with the line 22 aftershock.

The line peaks around 73 W longitude indicate that EM Signals detected before the earthquake were likely pointing to its approach. I have also looked at EM Signal data from early January of 2009 and found that they are remarkably similar to that 15 day window line. That suggests to me that it is possible that EM Signals related to the approaching Haiti earthquake were being generated as much as a year or more before it occurred.

Earthquakes As Precursors? - The main Haiti earthquake occurred at 18 N latitude and 72 W longitude. For quite a while now, low magnitude earthquakes have been occurring around that same latitude, but farther to the east, around 67 W in the Puerto Rico area. And that causes me to suspect that strain related to the approaching Haiti earthquake might have been transferring to the Puerto Rico area and causing those low magnitude earthquakes to occur. It might be worthwhile for earthquake researchers to monitor what happens to those Puerto Rico earthquakes now that the one in Haiti has occurred. If they gradually stop occurring then that might be an indicator that they were associated with transferred strain from the Haiti fault zone area.

Significant Aftershocks - It would probably be difficult for me to spot the approach of individual aftershocks this soon after the main earthquake. But in a few weeks and months when the fault zone has stabilized I am planning to watch for significant aftershocks and also plan to circulate warnings if any are expected. Now that the data lines are available for the original earthquake and its aftershocks, that is a relatively easy task for my forecasting program compared with trying to determine where the original earthquake is going to occur. We already know where the aftershocks are likely to occur.

Finally, my condolences to all who lost loved ones in the Haiti earthquake. And my personal thanks and admiration to all of the aid workers including military personnel who are traveling to Haiti to help with disaster relief efforts.