Hi all;

Boyko had posted a listing of all his 2009 predictions, over 3000 of them.

I set my program to test the ones which were within the date range of the current NEIC catalog and found 2492 of them.

Probabilities were computed from the NEIC quakes from 1973-2006 and the evaluation was run. The results showed that he had 454 hits using a 3 day window and a 300 km search radius with a 3 unit mag range allowed.

The significance level came out as less than -17. I had never seen such a low value and in fact thought it was impossible so I checked with Dr Jones who assured me that it was mathematically possible.

I also reran it for 1973-2007 quakes and got nearly identical results.

What this means is that while he got 454 hits out of 2492 tries (18%) the hits were not enough to overcome the penalty for misses.

Or to put it simply, he was just guessing and doing it badly.

Roger