You ask a question, I'll answer. The answer is: "is not". In your prediction you gave error as 100 km. You missed by about 900 km (7 deg latitude, 3 deg longitude). You got the date correct. I don't know where you come up with 24 minutes. You gave a day, not an hour. You predicted a magnitude of 4.4. I assume you mean 4.4 or higher, but you need to make that clear in your predictions. You have many predictions. The only way to tell if you are better than chance is for someone to systematically evaluate the predictions. M4.4 and large earthquakes mya be relatively common in Peru. The USGS page (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php) may not even report all the quakes over M4: I'm not sure what their low cutoff is for reporting quakes in non-USA subduction areas.

So, how is someone supposed to evaluate this: a miss on location (by factor of 9), a hit on date, and a low prediction magnitude in an area with a lot of earthquakes.

Chris