You appear to be missing one of the main points here. And if you remember this information then it will likely save a good number of few future posts.

For me this is part of a serious disaster mitigation effort. We have natural disasters, earthquakes, that claim large number of lives every year. Forecasting them has to be part of the solution. But for one reason of another no one seems to be able to predict them with sufficient accuracy and reliability.

Part of the effort to solve the problem is to give people who say that they can forecast earthquakes every possible chance to prove that they can do that. If you are hiring someone who is going to work for you as an advisor for how to invest in the stock market then it makes good sense to demand beforehand that he or she prove that he or she can do what is claimed. But when lives are at stake it is better to go overboard to let people prove their claims. At times you discover that even though they might not be able to do exactly what they say they can do, they can still generate some other vitally important type of information. Additionally, it can be helpful if you try to encourage people who are making at least some effort to move in the right direction. Sooner or later they might be successful.

Research almost always involves the loss of some time and effort. It is built into the basic process and is accepted by everyone. Human lives that are lost are gone forever.