Hi Glen,

Generally looks like you have all 3 critical criteria in your prediction, namely time, place, and magnitude.

However, the close time is a bit ambiguous. As EQs are reported down the the second usually, I could see a debate arising if a quake occurred, at say 19:00:30 on the closing day. Some would say the close time is assumed to be 19:00:00 because seconds were omitted, and others would say the close time is anything in that minute of 19:00, which would mean up to and including 19:00:59.

See what I mean when I argue a standard non-ambiguous prediction methodology is needed?

The problem with the form on this site is that it does nothing to force the predictor to enter exact criteria, in your case time down to the second. It should check for validity in all it's fields, and it does nothing. It should also allow prediction areas of polygons, which it does not, so is quite limiting.

Of course, this board's prediction form is intended as a quickie informal prediction form for users of this board rather than a watertight screening mechanism that will hold up against scientific analysis.

The other parameters (Depth, Area Felt, Basis, Focal Mechanism), from what I have read, are not usually a requirement for a prediction, but there is no reason they should not be included in the comments section of a prediction.

Anybody else want to chime in?

Michael