There is an example on the Etdprog.html Web page that compares the two highly destructive earthquakes that occurred in Turkey in 1999. That is probably the single best example that shows that this technology works.

On May 27, 1998 I posted an earthquake warning to the sci.geo.earthquakes Newsgroup for either Iran or Afghanistan.

People need to be careful about exactly what they say in public forecasts like that. I was actually expecting a highly destructive aftershock to occur in one particular fault zone area in Iran, or one in Afghanistan. That notice was as much detail as I was willing to provide in a public notice.

On May 30, 1998, a devastating earthquake occurred in Afghanistan, exactly where I expected to see one. Thousands of lives were reportedly lost.

On January 26, 2001 I spent about five hours on and off the telephone with some of my international disaster mitigation contacts trying to get them prepared to respond to a highly destructive earthquakes. At the end of that time I circulated an international earthquake warning. Shortly after it was circulated reports began to arrive about an earthquake in India that claimed tens of thousands of lives.

It isn’t possible for me to try to predict everyone’s earthquakes. And when I do predict one the information usually goes to only certain parties, not to a public notice. A primary reason for my developing that forecasting program and making it available to people around the world is so that other people can forecast their own earthquake. When the program is in widespread use, if governments have a single scientist spend a few days a week using the program to watch for earthquakes in their country then they should be able to spot the approach of at least some of them. Right now, with the exception of a few areas in China most governments probably have almost no resources for predicting earthquakes.

If you wish to play the “proof” game and demand that 100 highly accurate forecasts be posted to public locations before you will believe that earthquakes can be predicted then good luck to you. As I said, my approach is to provide other people with the means to forecast them. Then they can decide for themselves if they can be predicted.