Re: Earthquake Forecasting Computer Program Update October 25, 2008
Posted by EQF on October 27, 2008 at 16:08:18:

October 27, 2008 - This is an update on the earthquake forecasting and research computer program that is being discussed. The following are personal opinions.

When a person has a medical problem his or her physician can run any of a number of tests such as CAT scans and blood tests to determine what the problem is. The doctor will then study the results and try to cure the illness.

The new earthquake forecasting computer program being discussed here is primarily intended to be a resource that professional and amateur researchers around the world can use to determine where an earthquake might be about to occur. They will have to evaluate the data that it generates the same way that the doctor evaluates data from medical tests.

This is something of an art at the moment. Two strong electromagnetic signals were recently detected. I studied the data the program generated when I had it process those signals. And I concluded that a significant earthquake could be about to occur at 172W, 82W, 8E, or 98E. I did not think that a major earthquake was likely to occur at 172W or 8E. But I was concerned about 82W and 98E and was getting ready to circulate an advisory for those locations when the following earthquake occurred:

2008/10/19 05:10:36 21.75S 173.91W 42 7.1 Tonga
(NEIS data)

The computer program indicated that the earthquake was a high probability match for the electromagnetic signals. Fortunately, it was not destructive according to news reports.

It presently appears that the electromagnetic signals such as Ear Tones are likely strongest near the fault zone where the earthquake is going to occur. However some of them can be detected at any location on the planet. The original energy source for the signals could at times be the Earth’s geomagnetic energy field. When there is strong solar storm and geomagnetic storm activity, that energy can interact with a fault zone where an earthquake is about to occur and cause some of the signals to be generated. Some people believe that geomagnetic energy can actually trigger an earthquake by causing rock layer heating to occur in the fault zone.

This computer program is especially powerful because of features that enable it to interact with other computer programs. For example, when a keyboard key is pressed it will immediately store an “A,” “B,” “End,” or “Page Up” phrase corresponding to that key in a file where the information can be accessed by other programs that are checking the file. And it constantly checks another file for information generated by other programs. If it sees a certain type of command in that file it will send the information to the Gnuplot graphics program. If it sees another type of command in the file it will run it as a shell or system command. That allows it to start and stop other programs under the control of an external program. So, people can develop software using whatever language they wish and the program will run monitor the keyboard for them, run the Gnuplot graphics program, and start and stop other programs such as batch files etc.

It can also send information to the Windows operating system as if it had been typed in from the keyboard. That feature will probably not be available in the general public release version of the program in part because if it is not carefully used, Windows can get totally confused regarding what it is supposed to be doing.

Another nice feature of the program has to do with the Gnuplot graphics.

On the following Web page you can see some of the types of data the program is presently generating.

http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html

The world map shown there is generated from data in a simple text file. Those data look like the following:

-127 45
-128 48
-132 46

-119 34
-120 38

When Gnuplot processes the data in that file it draws a line on the map starting at 127W longitude and 45N latitude and continues the line to 128W 48N. The line then continues to 132W 46N. Then, the empty text line in the data file tells Gnuplot to “lift the pen” and start a new line beginning at 119W 34N, continuing on to 120W 38N.

When the program becomes available people will be able to easily create their own maps of fault zone systems etc. using those simple text files and the program will display them for them. Additional information in the files can instruct Gnuplot to generate any of a number of shapes, lines, and text using different colors etc.

A Web site needs to be found where program development work can take place. The plan is to have it so that researchers around the world can store their own software etc. at the site. SorceForge is available. But a Web site that was specifically intended for earthquake research would be better.

In connection with the program, an important advance was recently made regarding understanding the nature of the processes involved with earthquake triggering. But at the moment most of the development work is centered on getting the program into a form where it can be most easily used by researchers around the world.

An external text file is presently being added that lets people control text size and the color and location of different things on the display screen. That is needed because different computers have different screen sizes and resolutions. And on some, text information would be too small to read. People would also probably prefer to select the colors to be used with different parts of the display etc.