I was stressing out over getting my poster plotted (above) so missed all but 4 talks at the Southern San Andreas workshop session (SoSAFE). One of them was by Sinan Akciz (look at abstracts and try and find if he has a poster). The wisdom a few years ago that the Central San Andreas fault in Carrizo Plain had giant earthquakes with 9 or 10 m of slip every 300 years +/-. So, some working group of probabilities a decade or 2 ago put low probability on this section, which last broke in 1857.

Akciz (sp?) and all the people he works with (Lisa Grant?) have found that the actual interval between quakes on that part of the fault is a little over 130 years +/-. It has been 151 years since the last one.

Chris