Not a good scenario for the Gulf Coast. If Gustav goes down the middle of the track or west of it, it may not drive as much water into lake Ponchartrain...but could be problems for New Orleans from the south (don't know the layout of canals). Just a little east of the center of the forecast track and New Orleans is in serious trouble. Of course, everyone has to get out regardless. For Katrina, the National Hurricane Center put the suggestion into their forecasts that you should take an axe as you retreat to the attic so you can chop your way out. I imagine they will be suggesting that again tomorrow.

On top of that, the official forecast for Hanna is for it to be moving towards SE Florida in 5 days and strengthening...but with very large errors (forecast has it in Bahamas in 5 days but error includes Cuba, SE Florida.)

I lived in New Orleans for 2 1/2 years. Where I rented was just north of Tulane so probably was at the edge of the 2005 flood. We had discussions back then (early 80s) about whether New Orleans would have to be abandonned.

Chris