Hi Roger,

Sorry. My computer was sick and I was gone for a few days. Thank you for doing this analysis.

I'm confused.

You say:

Now while all this was gong on, I sorted the 1729 quakes into an array of 6 day windows and then counted how many cells had a quake. That came out to be 22.1% of them so the odds on finding a quake within a 6 day window chosen at random is 22.1%

Still with me?

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Yeah, up to this point.

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Finally I used a z-binomial test to see how significant it was to find 60 hits out of 217 tries when the odds are 0.221 for a hit and that came out to be about 0.03 for a single tail test. 0.03 is 97% better than chance.

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What does this mean in Statistics for Dummies? Are you saying it is likely (97% better than chance) to have a 7M+ quake during a supermoon, or are you saying it is unlikely? (The 22.1% figure you originally arrived at?)

In other words, we're about to have three successive supermoons. Should I take extra precautions?

Thanks,

Cathryn