I'd have to think a little harder and am doing something else now, but I don't think I disagree with what you say (double negative on purpose). But, you might be reading more into what I posted than intended. I did not state that you could use precursors to short-term predict....just that something was changing and if the access was easy (which it is not) you might detect some changes. There has just been a swarm of M5s in the Marianas. Something is jiggling around there. Perhaps the probability of something large is at least very slightly higher than an average day for the next few days or weeks.
Chris