Re: SCNC link
Posted by Cathryn on February 12, 2008 at 11:07:29:

I must be missing something. If the odds of a MMI VI quake go down from 1 in 1,000 during the first 24 hours, then with the passage of time, wouldn't that translate to 1 in 2,000 or 1 in 4,000 (for example) after a week had passed? Where do you get 1 in 100 or 200 after the first week? That seems awfully high, not low.

Cathryn

Follow Ups:
     ● Re: SCNC link - Mike Williams in Arroyo Grande  11:31:51 - 2/12/2008  (73311)  (2)
        ● No certainty at all...except... - Glen  19:15:40 - 2/12/2008  (73323)  (0)
        ● probability - heartland chris  11:41:46 - 2/12/2008  (73313)  (3)
           ● omori law = inverse time - John Vidale  15:58:45 - 2/12/2008  (73319)  (1)
              ● Re: omori law = inverse time - Glen  17:11:00 - 2/12/2008  (73320)  (1)
                 ● swarms - John Vidale  18:30:05 - 2/12/2008  (73321)  (1)
                    ● Got it.... - Glen  19:02:37 - 2/12/2008  (73322)  (1)
                       ● mid-March would be good - John Vidale  19:17:30 - 2/12/2008  (73324)  (1)
                          ● We will all tune in----thanx, n/t - Glen  21:43:34 - 2/12/2008  (73326)  (0)
           ● Re: probability - Canie  12:36:23 - 2/12/2008  (73315)  (0)
           ● Re: probability - Roger Hunter  12:18:22 - 2/12/2008  (73314)  (1)
              ● Re: probability - Cathryn  19:49:48 - 2/12/2008  (73325)  (0)