Hi Chris,

Yes, the directivity plots I mention are in the area of the Hayward Fault. I have linked these to the post. The Alum Rock PGA/PGV is southeastward, while the Piedmont plot is northeastward. The Glen Ellen plots, which would be associated with the Rodgers Creek Fault seem to be southwestward. The last plot for Berkeley is north, or almost in line with the MT solution for that quake. In each case it would appear the Hayward is being dilated, thus the hypothetical finding for vulnerability for that section of fault. The only plausible algorithm for hit rate at Berkeley proper is time dependent, something I do not include in the forecast. I could (and did) look at the average hit rate for the circular area mentioned in the predict, but this pales in significance, I believe, to the other factors involved. My thinking is that the creep rate on the section will overcome the asperity there due to the dilatency created by the latest quakes. There's more to it, but this would be the nutshell synopsis. Timing is very iffy.....

Glen

• Directivity Plots