still a gap left
Posted by John Vidale on September 15, 2007 at 16:47:54:

while I'm not a big believer that future earthquakes can be anticipated with any accuracy, the recent rupture history in Sumatra is that there is an unruptured area between the Dec 2004 + Mar 2005 quakes and the recent M8.4. Check out the link for the southern edge from the most recent 8.4 quake.

Unfortunately, it is a patch that could direct a tsunami toward a big city, Padang. It would not be an M9.2 like the 2004 quake, but could be destructive.

So that is probably what Kerry is thinking. I'd say anytime between 30 seconds and 300 years, but that is a detail.

Follow Ups:
     ● Re: still a gap left..but smaller - heartland chris  08:42:26 - 9/16/2007  (72640)  (1)
        ● still a gap left - John Vidale  11:44:55 - 9/16/2007  (72642)  (0)
     ● layperson question time - Cathryn  18:12:13 - 9/15/2007  (72635)  (1)
        ● subduction is marked by the offshore red line - John Vidale  19:34:31 - 9/15/2007  (72636)  (1)
           ● Re: subduction is marked by the offshore red line - Cathryn  19:47:08 - 9/15/2007  (72637)  (1)
              ● New question - Cathryn  20:03:51 - 9/15/2007  (72638)  (1)
                 ● handy site - John Vidale  23:42:07 - 9/15/2007  (72639)  (1)
                    ● Re: handy site - Cathryn  14:39:55 - 9/16/2007  (72645)  (0)