Re: The Holy Grail of Earthquake Prediction
Posted by bobshannon.org on May 02, 2001 at 06:57:38:

It is hard to make what we call today, prediction, a science. With
certain exceptions, the feelings which earth generates are ephemeral
and constantly morphing. They depend on the individual and the
individuals location and mindset at the time of the feelings.
This does not mean that they fall into another realm than
science, but that the people who are sensitive to them, are usually
not scientific oriented.
Another problem- I have seen discussions of personality
traits-Some think that personal issues are not a part of prediction.
They most certainly are the hardest issue to resolve via
filtering. (ie me). I was having a good time predicting quakes for
many years, until I started sharing that information with others.
This may be why researchers share nothing until full discovery.
Aware that the science world is sceptical and as others have
said, stick to the null theory, then there is a conflict between
the quasi philisophical arena and the pure science of it.
Does anyone remember many years back when the first images
of Pluto and moons were coming in. Commentators who were
hired scientists remarked that if some of the images proved
true, then they violated Laws of Thermodynamics. Thats a
pretty tough stance for just looking at pictures, however I
have yet to hear explanation for some of these pictures.
A hypothesis is one thing, a theory another but a law is
supposed to hold water under all conditions. If some of Plutos
moon shots did indeed violate Laws of Thermodynamics
and if that is provable as a Theory, then what happens to
the Law? Have scientific Laws ever been violated before?
Would that be the first time?
Some said that if the cold water fusion theory were true, it
would also violate the Laws of Conservation of Energy.
Hundreds of researchers tried to re-create the cold water
fusion notions and the end results were very mixed, with
most folks not able to recreate the orginal results. Why heck
even up here in the wilderness, my neighbor and I started
talking about where we could buy heavy metal water:-)
A lot of amateurs are into the prediction business...although
I would hardly call anyone a professional, other than USGS
and Parkfield. Us'n folks generally have larger than normal
egos and are frustrated by sceptics, which is why Dennis
dissapeared. He has some notions and I think he is right in
holding back the methods he uses and also right in leaving
a disagreement when it becomes too hot. In my case,
considering the symptoms are not related to tools but to the
body and mind. When sceptics chew away at my notions it
becomes much more of a challenge to my geo-biologic mind.
This increases filtering problems. What is the answer? How
do I remain excited about correct predictions if not to share
them?
The old scenario is that when a person falls off a horse,
he/she should get right back on and ride. When an earthquake
prediction fails the observer should continue on, even in the
wake of sceptics..but imagine if the horse rider had nobody
but neurotics to give him courage? "Hey you fell...NEVER
try that again!" Sounds like good old mom in the childhood
days... which brings me back to actual predicting.... On
Pinpoint I have apprx 250 folks who have followed quietly
the notions I have had and the new ideas I have projected.
When I find a scepetic writing to the group I try to cull
them out quickly and on a personal email basis. Cull and cult.
This helps me in filtering but also puts me on a pedastal in
which I become afraid to make a mistake... hence my predictions
become a bit more vague....Everything and every angle is
altered-- even my own perception. The only way to do it right
is to NOT share it (*mostly for those not using
instruments), but to pass it on to family only and enjoy all
of life, not just prediction. this is why I love Pinpoint.
Many of us have been together for 7 or 8 years now. We
are a family. Its ok to share in a family and its okay to be
wrong once in a while. Family understands!
Bob Shannon-Pinpoint