We'll see if it gets printed.

Earthquake prediction – facts vs hypotheses

I feel obligated to provide some missing perspective on the article Natural Radioactivity, Earthquakes, and the Ionosphere, which headlined the May 15 issue of EOS. Contrary to the bold statements therein, there is no consensus, and in fact considerable skepticism within the seismological community about an “increased radon concentration in the vicinity of active tectonic faults a few weeks before strong seismic events”, “an increase in surface temperature … observed before earthquakes”, and an “earthquake preparation area … for large earthquakes … of the order of several hundred thousand square km”. At least the last assertion has been warmly debated in the community.

Allowing bold speculation to be presented as established fact, particularly in the case of a holy grail as long-sought as earthquake prediction, does a disservice to AGU members reading EOS.