Posted by lowell on April 27, 2001 at 16:04:16:
Barry, Canie has made a very useful comment regarding the loading possibilities of flooding as a trigger for earthquakes. I believe there was a study done several years ago along the Mississippi on just this effect, however, cannot locate it in our archives at this time, but will keep looking. There are certainly several unusual earthquakes in the past 10 years which might suggest that local flooding was responsible. During a previous flood in the Red River valley in North Dakota/Minnesota a highly unusual earthquake occurred. The largest flood recently in the Rio Grande area was followed by a Ml 5.8 on April 14, 1995. There are some areas where earthquake seem to occur only during certain times of the year like some areas of So. Colorado where earthquakes are generally confined to mid-April to mid-May in the San Luis Valley. The easiest (and dirtiest) way to answer your question is in a statistical sense. Look at the number of earthquakes which have occurred each month in the general area of Memphis. I have attached a listing of numbers of earthquakes per month to this comment. The first group is for the general Memphis area, the second for the region up-river. This listing does not include aftershocks from the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-1812 as this would considerably bias the data towards December and January having more events. The result as seen below shows that there is a tendency for the number of recorded earthquakes in the region of Memphis to decline during the spring months of March through June when all earthquakes are considered and also, but less so, when only larger earthquakes are considered. Since floods occur preferentially in this area in the spring, it would appear that flooding is not a major factor in the seismicity of the area. In fact, the number of monthly earthquakes is almost half in the Spring months what it is in the Winter months, so one could argue that something is happening in the area in the Springtime which is retarding the occurrence of earthquakes (maybe flooding). At any rate, the statistics do not seem to suggest that spring flooding is responsible for a higher risk of seismicity in the Memphis area. 88-92W 34-36N ALL EVENTS MON # events 1 66 2 50 3 38 4 32 5 39 6 35 7 41 8 48 9 53 10 46 11 50 12 61 88-92W 34-36N ML>=2.0 MON # events 1 29 2 31 3 16 4 20 5 16 6 17 7 21 8 17 9 25 10 25 11 21 12 32 88-92W 34-36N ML>=3.0 MON # events 1 12 2 11 3 8 4 9 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 9 11 10 7 11 9 12 16 92-100W 37-50N ALL EVENTS MON # events 1 52 2 32 3 28 4 21 5 18 6 33 7 39 8 23 9 24 10 24 11 23 12 37 92-100W 37-50N ML>=2.0 MON # events 1 31 2 19 3 10 4 12 5 15 6 19 7 24 8 19 9 17 10 19 11 13 12 28 92-100W 37-50N ML>=3.0 MON # events 1 27 2 14 3 7 4 7 5 11 6 8 7 14 8 10 9 12 10 17 11 13 12 18
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