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Re: Prediction registry
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Posted by lowell on April 25, 2001 at 20:42:59:
Hi Michael, As with Roger, I know something about you through your messages on this board. First, where to register predictions: Any prediction should be sent to: Lowell Whiteside It is best if the prediction (or forecast for longer term or broader areas) be sent by e-mail. Then it is automatically given a date and time of receipt. This permits any questions about post-diction to be addressed. The e-mail address to send predictions is: low@luna.ngdc.noaa.gov A separate folder is maintained for each predictor. The folder contains all correspondence (Mail or e-mail) for future reference. These folders are not opened except by request of the predictor. After a number of predictions have been made a summary may be made and sent to the predictor. We do not routinely evaluate predictions as Roger did because this creates friction with predictors who may not agree with our evaluation methods. Our intent is merely to act as a database of predictions which have been made. We request that any prediction be specific. Your board has identified the main parameters required for a verifiable prediction - time, epicenter, magnitude or intensity, and boundary parameters for each of these. Look at some the predictions (like those from Don) on your board - these give a good starting place. A prediction can also be made by post. The postmark on the envelop is considered the date of the prediction, in this case. Mailed predictions can be sent to: Dr. Lowell Whiteside NOAA/NGDC Department of Commerce 325 Broadway, Boulder, Colorado, 80303 We generally do not accept forecasts or predictions made by phone since there is no way to verify these at a later date. As for why we are interested in predictions from "non-government" types. There are a host of reasons. First of all, the government is not, for the most part, engaged in "basic or fundamental research". The job of government is to provide the facilities and framework so that basic research is done by the people, individually or in private or academic institutions. As such, we seek to provide those with ideas or predictions a database where those predictions will not be corrupted or lost. Although past history of earthquake predictions is not encouraging, there is every reason to hope that this will change some day, and that when someone finally does break the code, they will be able to demonstrate that they have done so. The role of the National Geophysical Data Center is to provide an archive of all sorts of geophysical data - this is just one set of that data. It is worthwhile noting that the National Weather Service, whose predictions are commonplace now did not always exist. In fact, in the early and mid-1900's there were many private weather forecasting services, many of which did such a good job, that their ideas and techniques were eventually incorporated into the services of the National Weather Bureau. Anyway, government has a responsibility not only to govern, but to listen to those who are governed. This is the main reason we have an interest in earthquake forecasting and predictions from whatever the source.
Follow Ups:
● Gov - michael 20:56:43 - 4/25/2001 (7096) (1)
● Re: Gov - lowell 23:03:55 - 4/25/2001 (7098) (2)
● Wow! - michael 23:27:12 - 4/25/2001 (7100) (1)
● Re: Wow! - lowell 00:19:03 - 4/26/2001 (7102) (1)
● Re: Wow! - Canie 08:48:00 - 4/26/2001 (7121) (0)
● Re: Gov - lowell 23:19:31 - 4/25/2001 (7099) (2)
● Re: Gov - Roger Hunter 05:18:55 - 4/26/2001 (7108) (0)
● Re: Gov - michael 23:31:24 - 4/25/2001 (7101) (1)
● Re: Gov - lowell 00:22:01 - 4/26/2001 (7103) (3)
● Re: Gov - michael 08:25:12 - 4/26/2001 (7114) (0)
● Re: Gov - Roger Hunter 07:19:22 - 4/26/2001 (7110) (1)
● Exactly! NT - michael 08:26:41 - 4/26/2001 (7116) (0)
● Re: Gov - Don in Hollister 00:52:22 - 4/26/2001 (7104) (0)
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