Re: modifying predictions
Posted by Roger Hunter on April 25, 2001 at 15:37:09:

I agree. That's why there needs to be several phases to the process.

There is a learning phase where what is needed is the best-fitting quake(s) so the technique can be refined. Adjustment is not needed here.

There is an evaluation stage where a refined method is evaluated to establish credibility. No adjustments are allows here.

And finally there is the working stage, where an approved method is put to use. Adjustments are allowed and may even be necessary at this stage.

The problems we have experienced lately have come from confusion over which stage we are in.

That and tender toes and thin skins.

Adults should be able to get past that sort of thing.

Roger