Hi Canie;

Lucy very kindly responded to my request. The link to her paper is;

http://pasadena.wr.usgs.gov/office/jones/after-rates.html

Take a look and tell me what you think my chances are of explaining this to the average predictor who's angry because he/she got no credit for an aftershock.

I think my first impulse is correct; aftershocks don't count!

Roger