Actually, Alan Jones developed his method because of me and Bob Shannon. Overall I don't object to Alan's method, except for one piece of it. That had to do with combining calculated probabilities together for one overall probability. But as far as quake counting, etc., it was just fine.

As to the near miss region, I haven't given that a whole lot of thought lately. But I would think that we'd want to do it on both.

Also, are you aware of Alan's use of the Jones/Reasonburgh formula for adding additional probability when a prediction covers an area that just had a large quake?

Dennis