California quiet
Posted by heartland chris on December 15, 2006 at 05:33:10:

The magnetic storm has been going for 21 hours, and it was severe for 9 hours. I was too freaking lazy to step out my door last night and see if there was an aurora. California seismicty looks low to me, and I don't see any global quakes on the NEIC page that look unusual. It has been posted here in the past, I forget by who, that some part of solar activity, I think high proton flux, maybe electrons, suppresses seismicity, and that you then get an increase when that flux drops. There was some complicated reason for that that seemed unlikely to me. But, it is possible there could be a delay between onset of a magnetic storm and increased seismicity...I think it was suggested it might be a couple of days (maybe 4 days from the flare, so 2 or 3 from the storm. In my opinion, the low seismicity that I casually (non-scientifically) observe now will end eventually and even if it just goes to some normal rate, will look like an increase. But, as I posted here before, the apparent extended (say, 1 week) periods of low California seismicty...meaning even tiny ones on the NEIC map, and then things like the four M4+ quakes in 2 days scattered around the state a couple of weeks ago, so not seem like random processes (assuming that half the seismometers in the state aren't turned off for a week at a time). I would think that, in the abscense of large quakes with atershocks and triggered quakes, that the background level of small quakes should be more or less constant, and it is not. First, it would have to be demonstrated that this behavior is real (like, graphs of numbers of M1.5+ quakes for parts of California that are well instrumented. Then, some ideas on why this should be.
Caution: I am not an earthquake "seismologist" so have no more expertise on the above subjects than most others who have been posting here...except maybe more highly developed skepticism than some, less than others, and some feel for 18 years of California seismicity.
Chris


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: California quiet - Mike Williams in Arroyo Grande  14:18:15 - 12/15/2006  (61190)  (1)
        ● A big nothing - heartland chris  08:00:18 - 12/17/2006  (61246)  (0)