Hi Mary:

Thanks for the feedback and keeping me on my toes!

You are correct, and we do want to be nit picky as you say. The idea of the Table is to reflect the facts, so we really do want to get them right.

Post 5742: Was not added to the Prediction Status Table because the prediction did not contain a properly defined time frame. The close of your window was "+- 12 hours". Lucky for you, as you didn't want to post it anyways after all those EQs disappeared!

Post 5017: This is indeed a Hit, and the Table has been updated to reflect this. Sorry, I missed your original post.

With regards to the search info provided me, there is a rectangle search at NEIC that would be more appropriate for 5017. The URL is:

http://gldss7.cr.usgs.gov/neis/epic/epic_rect.html

Also of interest with regards to 5017, there was a 100% chance your prediction would be a hit as the area/time frame was so large. Random chance is something we are working on to be included in the table, to give predictors some idea of the value of their predictions. A quick look at 5017 shows me that in the year 2000, there were 217 EQs that met your area and magnitude ranges. This means that, on average, an EQ occured on average every 1.69 days (366 days/217 EQs) in this area and magnitude range. So, with your window of about 12 days, it would have been very rare indeed for you to not hit this prediction, in other words, it was a sure thing.

The point I want to make is that 5017 was indeed a hit, and has been recorded as such, but it was not very usefull, IMHO. Please don't view my comments as a put down as they are intended as constructive. Try to make your predictions as tight as possible, then they will have more credibility and value.

Michael

FILE CREATED: Fri Mar 16 10:21:38 2001
Geographic Grid Search Earthquakes= 217
Latitude: 41.000N - 35.000N
Longitude: 116.000W - 124.000W
Catalog Used: PDE
Date Range: Year: 2000 - 2000 Month: 01/Day: 01 Month: 12/Day: 31
Magnitude Range: 3.0 - 5.8
Data Selection: Historical & Preliminary Data

CAT YEAR MO DA ORIG TIME LAT LONG DEP MAGNITUDE IEFM DTSVNWG DIST
NFPO km
TFS

PDE 2000 01 02 154941 38.03 -118.70 4 3.30 MDREN .... .......
PDE 2000 01 06 213810.94 38.84 -122.83 2 4.00 MwBRK ...G .......
PDE 2000 01 09 193427.76 37.53 -118.82 6 3.20 MDGM .... .......
PDE 2000 01 10 214127.13 38.76 -122.91 6 4.40 MwBRK .F.G .......
PDE 2000 01 11 141952.08 38.77 -122.91 6 4.60 MwBRK .F.G .......
PDE 2000 01 17 183120 37.79 -116.00 11 3.50 MDREN .... .......
PDE 2000 01 17 233255.03 37.37 -121.73 7 3.50 MDGM .F.. .......
PDE 2000 01 18 232601.31 38.75 -122.91 7 4.30 MwBRK 5F.G .......
PDE 2000 01 19 111102.67 38.10 -118.71 5 3.30 MLGS .... .......
PDE 2000 01 20 100455.37 38.05 -118.69 5 3.20 MLBRK .... .......
PDE 2000 01 21 043950.11 37.57 -118.86 9 3.80 MLBRK 2F.. .......
PDE 2000 01 24 195612.62 35.75 -118.01 9 3.40 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 01 26 110203.89 35.75 -118.01 8 4.00 MLBRK .... .......
PDE 2000 01 30 152437.40 38.73 -119.64 5 3.20 MLBRK .... .......
PDE 2000 01 31 010502.82 37.58 -118.85 4 3.00 MDGM .... .......
PDE 2000 02 02 230323.86 39.21 -123.46 6 3.30 MLNC .F.. .......
PDE 2000 02 07 225204.42 40.85 -116.40 10 3.20 MLGS .... .......
PDE 2000 02 18 132148.53 40.85 -122.17 2 3.10 MLBRK .... .......
PDE 2000 02 21 094810.62 35.67 -117.63 2 3.00 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 02 21 232938.18 39.51 -120.57 5 3.20 MLBRK .... .......
PDE 2000 02 25 120209.66 36.08 -117.60 0 3.30 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 02 28 205323.10 38.79 -122.77 3 3.10 MLBRK .... .......
PDE 2000 02 28 230842.01 36.07 -117.60 0 4.20 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 02 29 185526.40 36.08 -117.60 0 3.70 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 02 29 220805.81 36.08 -117.60 0 4.10 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 02 29 223139.56 36.08 -117.60 0 3.00 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 03 02 150034.07 36.08 -117.60 0 4.00 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 03 02 170927.94 36.08 -117.60 0 3.50 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 03 04 161322 37.85 -118.20 1 4.40 MLBRK ...G .......
PDE 2000 03 08 224524.27 35.65 -117.63 3 3.00 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 03 10 171012.51 38.80 -122.79 5 3.20 MLBRK .... .......
PDE 2000 03 11 133546.09 37.54 -118.82 6 3.00 MDNC .... .......
PDE 2000 03 16 214236.12 36.38 -120.39 7 3.80 MwBRK ...G .......
PDE 2000 03 22 154120.37 36.81 -121.55 8 3.30 MLNC .F.. .......
PDE 2000 03 25 033806.51 36.90 -121.02 2 3.00 MLBRK .... .......
PDE 2000 03 25 162249.80 36.90 -121.02 4 3.90 MLBRK ...G .......
PDE 2000 03 26 073414.58 35.80 -117.65 3 3.00 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 03 26 111407.34 37.49 -118.84 3 3.20 MLBRK .... .......
PDE 2000 03 28 151615.89 36.02 -117.87 0 4.60 MLBRK .... .......
PDE 2000 03 28 151817.30 36.01 -117.87 3 3.50 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 03 28 152212.12 36.00 -117.86 3 3.20 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 03 28 152251.86 36.02 -117.87 3 3.30 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 03 28 175916.18 36.00 -117.87 1 3.10 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 03 28 185024.61 36.01 -117.87 2 3.10 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 03 28 210307.30 37.63 -122.02 5 3.30 MLBRK 4F.. .......
PDE 2000 03 28 213059.65 36.00 -117.87 2 3.30 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 03 29 174947 39.42 -120.57 12 3.20 MLBRK .... .......
PDE 2000 03 30 011705.97 36.02 -117.87 2 3.00 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 03 30 013029.21 36.02 -117.87 2 3.00 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 03 31 172308.04 40.88 -116.42 5 3.90 MLGS .... .......
PDE 2000 04 03 162112.51 39.36 -122.87 11 3.00 MDNC .... .......
PDE 2000 04 05 022031.09 38.78 -122.77 5 3.90 MwBRK .F.G .......
PDE 2000 04 09 120118.26 40.27 -121.19 3 3.00 MDNC .... .......
PDE 2000 04 10 130529.64 37.47 -121.71 9 3.20 MLBRK .F.. .......
PDE 2000 04 11 082016.09 36.18 -117.92 0 3.20 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 04 14 122231.77 37.98 -122.04 15 3.30 MwBRK .F.G .......
PDE 2000 04 14 174925.62 37.60 -121.97 9 3.20 MLBRK .F.. .......
PDE 2000 04 16 004951.67 36.19 -120.26 10 3.20 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 04 16 213252.50 36.01 -117.83 2 3.20 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 04 20 120640.58 39.40 -123.07 5 3.10 MDNC .F.. .......
PDE 2000 04 22 064422.75 37.49 -118.84 3 3.10 MDNC .... .......
PDE 2000 04 23 084839.02 35.28 -118.53 1 3.40 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 04 26 012017.74 36.33 -118.06 4 3.30 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 04 29 170541.06 35.79 -120.34 9 3.00 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 05 06 110456 38.25 -118.41 8 3.10 MLREN .... .......
PDE 2000 05 06 112030 38.25 -118.40 7 3.00 MLREN .... .......
PDE 2000 05 07 165040.59 36.24 -120.83 6 3.10 MDNC .... .......
PDE 2000 05 09 080055.98 36.94 -121.68 12 3.40 MDNC .F.. .......
PDE 2000 05 11 101042.41 38.81 -122.80 3 3.20 MLBRK .... .......
PDE 2000 05 11 113117.41 38.25 -118.32 5 3.00 MLGS .... .......
PDE 2000 05 13 095157.63 39.40 -123.07 5 3.00 MDNC .... .......
PDE 2000 05 16 085605.23 36.33 -118.06 1 3.10 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 05 17 092838.31 36.33 -118.05 0 3.40 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 05 17 173703.94 36.33 -118.05 0 3.50 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 05 17 223207.66 39.39 -123.07 7 4.50 MwBRK 4F.G .......
PDE 2000 05 18 094137.42 35.10 -118.31 6 4.00 MLBRK 4F.. .......
PDE 2000 05 18 162454.69 39.38 -123.06 5 3.10 MDNC .... .......
PDE 2000 05 19 230727.33 36.33 -118.05 0 3.30 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 05 21 100431.87 39.38 -123.06 6 3.40 MDNC .F.. .......
PDE 2000 05 21 161203.75 39.37 -123.05 8 3.50 MDNC .F.. .......
PDE 2000 05 21 193437.48 39.37 -123.05 6 3.00 MDNC .F.. .......
PDE 2000 05 22 124630.36 40.64 -123.84 21 3.20 MDNC 3F.. .......
PDE 2000 05 23 044243.88 36.32 -118.07 0 4.00 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 05 23 111148.34 36.32 -118.05 1 3.00 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 05 24 235119.86 39.38 -123.05 5 3.50 MLNC .... .......
PDE 2000 05 27 033534.37 35.78 -117.65 0 4.10 MLBRK 3F.. .......
PDE 2000 05 27 131447.89 36.07 -117.64 0 3.10 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 05 29 232133.95 39.35 -123.04 6 3.30 MDNC .F.. .......
PDE 2000 06 06 053219 37.36 -117.19 4 3.40 MLREN .... .......
PDE 2000 06 08 081917.17 35.78 -117.65 2 3.10 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 06 13 114811.55 37.31 -121.68 7 3.60 MLBRK .F.. .......
PDE 2000 06 16 015135 38.73 -119.65 0 3.10 MLBRK .... .......
PDE 2000 06 18 053123.06 38.32 -117.86 5 3.20 MLGS .... .......
PDE 2000 06 21 214357.41 36.98 -118.27 8 3.00 MDNC .... .......
PDE 2000 06 22 053042.21 37.90 -118.21 5 3.00 MLGS .... .......
PDE 2000 06 22 063222 37.83 -118.23 7 3.30 MLNC .... .......
PDE 2000 06 22 065736.98 36.86 -121.32 5 3.00 MDNC .... .......
PDE 2000 06 23 135521 38.73 -119.65 7 3.60 MLNC .F.. .......
PDE 2000 06 23 140232 38.73 -119.66 2 3.90 MLNC .F.. .......
PDE 2000 06 23 201042.73 35.51 -116.26 6 3.10 MLPAS .... .......
PDE 2000 06 24 045100.66 37.46 -118.77 5 3.00 MLNC .... .......
PDE 2000 06 24 110417.37 38.77 -122.69 1 3.40 MLBRK .... .......
PDE 2000 06 25 072318.26 37.12 -121.53 7 3.70 MLBRK .F.. .......
PDE 2000 06 28 020742.26 38.81 -122.80 5 3.10 MLNC .... .......
PDE 2000 06 29 003544.95 37.39 -117.01 5 3.00 MLGS .... .......
PDE-W 2000 07 03 221318.06 37.34 -121.71 8 3.30 MDGM .F.. .......
PDE-W 2000 07 05 122631 40.22 -119.61 4 3.90 MLREN .... .......
PDE-W 2000 07 08 235815.07 36.32 -118.05 0 3.00 MLPAS .... .......
PDE-W 2000 07 09 010838.90 36.32 -118.05 0 3.00 MLPAS .... .......
PDE-W 2000 07 09 040233.10 36.32 -118.05 0 3.40 MLPAS .... .......
PDE-W 2000 07 09 133255.06 36.33 -118.04 2 3.20 MLPAS .... .......
PDE-W 2000 07 09 135820.12 36.33 -118.04 2 3.10 MLPAS .... .......
PDE-W 2000 07 09 205905 38.74 -119.65 8 3.60 MLGM .... .......
PDE-W 2000 07 15 115638.98 37.97 -122.03 15 3.70 MwBRK .F.G .......
PDE-W 2000 07 16 191849.49 36.72 -121.36 3 3.50 MDNC .F.. .......
PDE-W 2000 07 19 215333.55 36.56 -121.06 9 3.30 MLNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 07 24 163419.76 38.78 -122.77 4 3.10 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 07 30 091637.93 40.38 -122.05 19 3.70 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 08 03 070636.30 36.33 -118.04 1 3.20 MLPAS .... .......
PDE-W 2000 08 10 141515.51 35.13 -120.75 0 3.40 MDNC .F.. .......
PDE-W 2000 08 11 074332.82 39.34 -123.03 9 3.00 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 08 14 161920.72 39.34 -123.03 9 3.00 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 08 14 181800.05 39.34 -123.03 9 3.10 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 08 15 210705.51 37.52 -118.64 12 3.10 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 08 17 050930.97 36.62 -121.16 8 3.50 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 08 17 134139.62 36.51 -120.66 7 3.60 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 08 17 233608 37.84 -118.21 7 3.90 MLREN .... .......
PDE-W 2000 08 18 141217.04 38.80 -122.80 1 3.00 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 08 19 015635.17 36.04 -117.71 1 3.00 MLPAS .... .......
PDE-W 2000 08 20 185844.80 39.34 -123.03 8 3.00 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 08 21 044513.50 39.33 -123.03 12 4.00 MwBRK .F.G .......
PDE-W 2000 08 23 044111.11 36.08 -117.61 0 3.40 MLPAS .F.. .......
PDE-W 2000 08 27 031734 37.84 -118.22 7 3.00 MLREN .... .......
PDE-W 2000 08 28 012705.98 37.51 -118.64 14 3.00 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 08 30 035248.78 35.68 -117.62 3 3.50 MLPAS .F.. .......
PDE-W 2000 09 03 083630.09 38.38 -122.41 10 5.20 MLNC 7C.. .......
PDE-W 2000 09 04 014308.48 39.36 -123.04 8 3.40 MDNC .F.. .......
PDE-W 2000 09 04 053605.20 39.36 -123.04 9 3.10 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 09 04 102713 38.24 -119.41 6 3.00 MLNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 09 05 173928.28 37.48 -118.84 3 3.10 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 09 05 180652.95 37.48 -118.83 3 3.10 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 09 08 120650.22 39.84 -123.50 5 3.00 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 09 09 191212 36.73 -116.28 9 3.00 MLREN .... .......
PDE-W 2000 09 10 195141.11 36.09 -117.81 1 3.10 MLPAS .... .......
PDE-W 2000 09 19 034633.79 36.04 -117.86 2 3.10 MLPAS .... .......
PDE-W 2000 09 20 161033.49 36.04 -117.86 2 3.80 MLPAS .... .......
PDE-W 2000 09 21 180858.61 35.85 -120.39 7 3.30 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 09 26 072029.95 38.66 -119.53 9 4.70 MLREN .F.G .......
PDE-W 2000 09 26 072404.39 38.68 -119.49 10 3.50 MLNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 09 26 072728.74 38.67 -119.48 10 4.20 MLNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 09 26 073155.10 38.66 -119.50 10 3.00 MLNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 09 26 073556.67 38.67 -119.50 10 3.60 MLNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 09 27 185131.94 38.82 -122.79 5 3.20 MLNC .F.. .......
PDE-W 2000 09 28 194018.85 36.56 -121.15 7 3.30 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 10 03 024402.86 35.78 -117.65 0 3.60 MLPAS .F.. .......
PDE-W 2000 10 08 001750.88 35.28 -119.03 21 3.10 MLPAS .F.. .......
PDE-W 2000 10 09 195236.49 36.71 -121.33 3 3.30 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 10 11 193048.09 35.62 -119.54 6 3.00 MLPAS .... .......
PDE-W 2000 10 12 093233.40 40.52 -119.50 5 3.70 MLGS .... .......
PDE-W 2000 10 14 045329.07 37.37 -117.12 8 4.20 MLREN .... .......
PDE-W 2000 10 14 210133.73 36.96 -121.58 6 3.10 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 10 14 231704.92 39.92 -120.87 5 3.40 MLGS .... .......
PDE-W 2000 10 20 140249 36.59 -116.26 4 3.40 MLREN .... .......
PDE-W 2000 10 22 145411.56 35.47 -116.44 9 3.60 MLPAS .... .......
PDE-W 2000 10 22 145425.93 35.47 -116.45 6 3.60 MLPAS .... .......
PDE-W 2000 10 28 143251.63 37.52 -118.82 5 3.10 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 11 04 174913 39.41 -123.08 7 3.50 MDNC .F.. .......
PDE-W 2000 11 08 115941.72 38.13 -122.17 9 3.00 MDNC 3F.. .......
PDE-W 2000 11 08 190512.97 38.84 -122.79 2 3.40 MLNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 11 13 070533.18 37.42 -118.66 11 3.60 MDNC .F.. .......
PDE-W 2000 11 15 201723.81 39.97 -120.70 15 3.30 MLREN .... .......
PDE-W 2000 11 16 130652.77 40.50 -119.48 3 3.80 MLREN .... .......
PDE-W 2000 11 16 170200.04 39.74 -122.83 0 3.40 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 11 19 125450 40.49 -119.51 4 4.30 MLREN .... .......
PDE-W 2000 11 21 203941 36.49 -116.21 6 3.40 MLREN .... .......
PDE-W 2000 11 22 031015.02 39.75 -122.84 0 3.00 MLNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 11 23 225802.51 35.83 -121.31 5 3.10 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 11 24 004010.63 40.48 -119.49 5 3.40 MLREN .... .......
PDE-W 2000 11 25 173820 39.68 -119.29 8 3.50 MLREN .... .......
PDE-W 2000 11 29 084942.13 40.49 -119.53 6 3.10 MLREN .... .......
PDE-W 2000 12 01 225754.08 37.65 -119.37 19 3.00 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 12 02 153415.37 39.38 -120.45 14 4.90 MLREN 5F.G .......
PDE-W 2000 12 02 153747.60 39.38 -120.46 12 3.40 MLBRK .... .......
PDE-W 2000 12 02 163055.20 39.38 -120.46 12 3.30 MLBRK .... .......
PDE-W 2000 12 03 120757.80 40.63 -122.41 23 3.10 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 12 05 211846.86 36.07 -117.89 5 3.30 MLPAS .... .......
PDE-W 2000 12 05 225454.50 36.78 -121.38 9 4.00 MLBRK 4F.. .......
PDE-W 2000 12 08 074111.43 38.78 -122.77 4 4.40 MwBRK 5F.G .......
PDE-W 2000 12 10 123541.97 40.33 -120.48 10 3.40 MLBRK .... .......
PDE-W 2000 12 11 145811.59 35.25 -118.57 5 3.00 MLPAS .... .......
PDE-W 2000 12 12 050936.82 38.83 -122.76 1 3.00 MLBRK .... .......
PDE-W 2000 12 12 200134.11 36.59 -121.10 8 3.00 MLBRK .... .......
PDE-W 2000 12 12 212528.75 37.49 -118.84 5 3.30 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 12 12 220811.42 36.87 -121.60 7 3.40 MDNC .F.. .......
PDE-W 2000 12 14 185821.73 37.35 -121.71 8 3.50 MLBRK .F.. .......
PDE-W 2000 12 16 050711.70 40.99 -121.69 13 3.20 MLBRK .... .......
PDE-W 2000 12 17 024611.90 35.58 -117.16 5 3.40 MLPAS .... .......
PDE-W 2000 12 18 184105.74 40.29 -120.27 12 3.60 MLBRK .... .......
PDE-W 2000 12 19 064244.77 35.09 -117.02 3 3.00 MLPAS .... .......
PDE-W 2000 12 20 012956 37.15 -118.07 0 3.60 MLNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 12 20 225551.89 40.99 -121.69 13 3.90 MwBRK .F.G .......
PDE-W 2000 12 20 225938.62 40.99 -121.69 14 3.80 MLNC .F.G .......
PDE-W 2000 12 20 232254.52 40.99 -121.70 11 4.40 MLBRK .F.G .......
PDE-W 2000 12 20 233320.64 40.99 -121.70 14 3.20 MLBRK .... .......
PDE-W 2000 12 20 233914.81 40.99 -121.70 19 4.70 MLBRK 5F.G .......
PDE-W 2000 12 21 003803.14 40.98 -121.70 4 3.50 MLBRK .... .......
PDE-W 2000 12 21 012629.15 41.00 -121.69 13 3.10 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 12 21 045727.35 37.55 -118.83 8 3.30 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 12 23 070635.79 40.22 -119.58 12 3.70 MLREN .... .......
PDE-W 2000 12 23 070851.13 40.22 -119.58 12 3.20 MLBRK .... .......
PDE-W 2000 12 24 181900.23 37.40 -117.14 5 3.50 MLREN .... .......
PDE-W 2000 12 24 205246.44 37.44 -117.09 6 3.50 MLREN .... .......
PDE-W 2000 12 29 024511.47 37.54 -118.44 6 3.90 MLBRK .F.. .......
PDE-W 2000 12 29 224618 36.62 -121.22 7 3.30 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 12 30 183005.52 37.54 -118.44 5 3.00 MDNC .... .......
PDE-W 2000 12 30 214707.96 38.82 -122.79 1 3.00 MLBRK .... .......
PDE-W 2000 12 31 043546.52 40.99 -121.69 4 3.00 MDNC .... .......