Not this discussion again.

If I predict an M5 for here in Taiwan for one week and we have an M4 every day that week and have an M5 every other week, how would that compare with no M4s and an M5 every other week? Would it show up in your probability calculation?

I still have yet to need anyone to tell me when someone is predicting the obvious.

The calculation is too easy to adjust to various outcomes.

Further down the page on another thread, Michael said it himself when he stated that probability can be used to prove or disprove.

Here's a new twist on the old idea. Since there is no doubt some relationship (however easy to alter,) can't you use a system like stars? One star for a easy to predict event and five stars for a difficult event. It still could be somewhat subjective.