Posted by Don in Hollister on February 21, 2001 at 13:39:10:
Hi Canie. Yes I have seen that link plus a few more. The Coalinga quake was associated with GV13. The Vacaville and Winters quakes were associated withGV04. All of the segments are felt to be able to have a quake in the 6.0Md+ range with GV03 the largest at 6.8Md with a recurrence time of 620 years. Of course we both know that if two of the segments broke at the same time the energy released would go up. The one area that could do this although remote is GV12 which is the northward continuation of Coaling-New Idria NE flank, but there were no aftershocks in this area in 1983 so that might rule that segment out. There is the New Idria thrust fault that is considered inactive. Not sure as to how it fits into the scheme of things. All of the segments are of the reverse type. The slip rate varies from 0.1mm per year at segments GV01 and GV02 with the rest at 1.5mm per year. With that amount of slip rate it would seem that it would take some considerable time before the next large quake. However as this fault is 600Km long there is a lot of room left that hasn’t had a large quake in recorded history. The recent quakes in the Los Banos area appear to be associated with GV9 although it could also be GV8 as they are very close to both segments. Take Care…Don in creepy town
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